global stocks
Deleveraging Tested on 13 Markets: Only 2 Beat SPY
D/E reduction + ROE > 8% tested on 13 exchanges from 2001-2025. Only India (+4.39%) and Canada (+1.32%) beat SPY. US -4.23%, HK -8.85%. The signal is regime-dependent, not universal.
Latest
debt reduction
Deleveraging as a US Stock Signal: A Regime-Dependent Strategy That Stopped Working in 2013
We backtested D/E reduction with ROE > 8% on US stocks from 2001-2025. 3.78% CAGR vs 8.01% for SPY. Pre-2013 it averaged +2.7% excess per year. Post-2013 it averaged -9.8%. The signal didn't fail — it became regime-dependent when ZIRP made leverage cheap.
india stocks
India Is the Exception: Deleveraging Earns +4.39% Annual Excess on BSE+NSE
The same D/E reduction + ROE > 8% screen that fails in the US adds 4.39% annually in India. CAGR 12.40%, down capture 40.66%, total return 1,927%. The signal works here because balance sheet discipline is genuinely scarce in India's growth economy.
backtests
Low Debt + Financial Health: Results Across 13 Global Exchanges
We ran a low-debt + Piotroski F-Score screen on 13 exchanges over 25 years. India leads at 14.05% CAGR with -2.02% down capture. Canada is the biggest surprise. Switzerland has the best Sharpe. Here''s the full global breakdown.
value investing
Low Debt Quality on US: Downside Protection Tested Over 25 Years
We screened all US stocks (NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX) for low leverage and high financial quality using D/E < 0.5 and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 or higher, then held the portfolio annually for 25 years. The result: 7.09% CAGR vs 7.83% for SPY. The strategy trailed
quality investing
Low Debt Quality on UK Stocks (LSE): 6.14% CAGR Over 25 Years
We ran the low-leverage quality screen on LSE-listed UK stocks across 25 years. D/E < 0.5 and Piotroski F-Score >= 7 as the entry conditions. Annual July rebalance, equal weight, all qualifying stocks held. The result: 6.14% CAGR vs 7.83% for SPY. A deficit of -1.
quality investing
Low Debt Quality on Thailand Stocks: Exceptional Crash Protection,
We screened all SET-listed stocks for D/E < 0.5 and Piotroski F-Score of 7 or higher, then held the portfolio annually from 2000 to 2025. The result: 3.30% CAGR vs 7.83% for SPY. The strategy trailed by 4.53% per year. Total return was 125.34%
quality investing
Low Debt Quality on Taiwan: Cash-Rich Tech and Half the Market's
We screened all TAI and TWO-listed stocks for D/E < 0.5 and Piotroski F-Score of 7 or higher, then held the portfolio annually from 2000 to 2025. The result: 3.29% CAGR vs 7.83% for SPY. The strategy trailed by 4.54% per year. Total return was
quality investing
Low Debt Quality Stocks: Switzerland (SIX) — 25-Year Backtest
D/E < 0.5 + Piotroski F-Score >= 7 on the SIX Swiss Exchange produced the highest Sharpe ratio of any market tested (0.429), 8.14% CAGR, 69.27% down capture, and zero cash periods across 25 years.
quality investing
Low Debt Quality Stocks: Sweden (STO) — 25-Year Backtest
D/E < 0.5 + Piotroski F-Score >= 7 on the Stockholm exchange returned 8.97% CAGR vs 7.83% for SPY, with 106.29% up capture and 7 protective cash periods. A thin but effective universe of 22 stocks.
quality investing
Low Debt Quality on Japanese Stocks (JPX): 6.00% CAGR Over 25 Years
D/E < 0.5 and Piotroski F-Score >= 7 on JPX stocks across 25 years. 6.00% CAGR vs 7.83% SPY. 112 avg qualifying stocks, 75.1% down capture. Abenomics drove +47.4% in 2012 and +38.9% in 2014. Japan's deflation era cost the strategy its 25-year edge.
value investing
Low Debt Quality on Indian Stocks: 14.05% CAGR and a -2.02% Down Capture Over 25 Years
D/E < 0.5 + Piotroski F-Score >= 7 on BSE and NSE, backtested 2000-2025. 14.05% CAGR in INR, +6.22% excess vs SPY, -2.02% down capture. When SPY fell -26.1% in 2008, this portfolio returned +16.4%.