earnings - Trading Studio

earnings

Post-Earnings Dip in India: No Significant Recovery vs Sensex

India beat-and-dip events on NSE: 284 events, 2021–2025. T+63 CAR is +1.57% (t=1.68, not significant) vs Sensex. The earlier +2.54%** result was vs INDA ETF — a different benchmark that included USD/INR movements. Measured locally, the edge disappears.

Grouped bar chart showing cumulative abnormal returns by dip size at T+5, T+10, T+21, and T+63 windows for Taiwan stocks 2014-2025. Sharp dip category shows strong positive reversion.

earnings

Post-Earnings Dip in Taiwan: Beat + 10% Sell-Off Produces +7.4% Recovery

Taiwan is the exception in a global beat-and-dip study. 411 events from 2014–2025 show statistically significant mean reversion: +2.20%** at T+21 overall, and +7.35%** for the 10–20% dip category. Every other market in the study shows flat or negative drift.

Grouped bar chart showing cumulative abnormal returns by beat streak length at T+1, T+5, T+21, and T+63 windows for Indian BSE and NSE stocks 2020-2025.

earnings

Beat Streaks in India: +4.15% T+63 vs Sensex

India shows the highest beat-streak returns globally at +5.05% T+63. But 95% of events are from 2022-2025. We publish the results with full transparency about the data coverage. The signal is real for that period. Whether it continues is an open question.

Grouped bar chart showing cumulative abnormal returns by beat streak length at T+1, T+5, T+21, and T+63 windows for US stocks 2000-2025.

earnings

Earnings Beat Streaks: Does Consecutive Beating Drive Stock Returns?

We analyzed 73,386 beat streak events across US exchanges from 2000-2025. A second consecutive earnings beat produces +0.77% T+21 abnormal return vs SPY. The sweet spot is streak 2 and 3. Very long streaks show diminishing returns.

Pre-earnings CAR by beat-rate category: habitual beaters +0.289%, mixed +0.107%, missers -0.321% over 10 trading days before earnings announcements

event study

Pre-Earnings Runup: 25 Years of US Data Shows Beat Rate Matters

155,684 US earnings events from 2000-2025. Habitual beaters drift +0.289% vs S&P 500 in 10 days before announcements. Habitual missers fall -0.321%. The spread between best and worst beat-rate quintiles is 44bp.

Pre-earnings CAR in Japan by beat-rate category vs Nikkei 225: overall -0.007%, mixed -0.017%, beater +0.126% (not sig)

event study

Pre-Earnings Runup in Japan: The Effect Disappears Against the Nikkei

15,167 JPX earnings events from 2017-2025. When benchmarked against the Nikkei 225 instead of EWJ, the pre-earnings drift drops to -0.007% (t=-0.19). Not significant. The original +0.114% result was a benchmark artifact.

Pre-earnings T-10 CAR comparison across 13 global markets with local benchmarks, ranging from Korea +0.745% to Switzerland -0.245%

event study

Pre-Earnings Runup: 13 Markets, Local Benchmarks, Honest Results

Pre-earnings drift across 13 markets with local currency benchmarks. Korea leads at +0.745% vs KOSPI, India +0.693% vs Sensex (NSE). Japan's effect disappeared vs Nikkei. Taiwan flipped from negative to positive. Benchmark choice matters.

Pre-earnings CAR in Korea by beat-rate category: all categories show similar drift regardless of beat history

event study

Pre-Earnings Runup in Korea: +0.75% Drift, But Beat Rate Doesn't Explain It

6,348 KOSPI earnings events from 2016-2025. Pre-earnings drift averages +0.745% vs KOSPI in 10 days before announcements. Both habitual missers (+0.593%) and mixed stocks (+0.772%) show the same drift. Beat rate doesn't matter in Korea.

earnings

Beat Earnings, Stock Still Drops 5%: What Happens Next in 12 Markets

18,925 beat-and-dip events across 12 exchanges with local benchmarks. Taiwan: +2.20%** at T+21. UK: +1.33%** (new). China: +2.35%** at T+63 (new). US: -0.85%** (continues falling). India lost its signal when measured vs Sensex instead of a USD ETF.

Grouped bar chart showing cumulative abnormal returns by dip size at T+5, T+10, T+21, and T+63 windows for US stocks 2000-2025. All categories show negative drift.

earnings

Post-Earnings Dip Backtest: 13,954 Events Say Don't Buy the Beat-and-Dip

We tested 13,954 beat-and-dip events on US stocks from 2000–2025. Stocks that beat earnings but sell off 5%+ don't recover. They keep underperforming. T+63 CAR is -0.85% (t=-4.56). The sell-off is not an overreaction; it's information.

Cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for earnings beats vs misses at T+1, T+5, T+21, T+63 trading days

event-study

Post-Earnings Announcement Drift: 25 Years of US Data

We analyzed 157,269 earnings events from 2000-2025 on NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX with next-day close entry. Beats drift -0.32% vs SPY at T+63. Misses decline -0.91%. Q5-Q1 spread: +1.34pp. The announcement-day reaction is the bulk of PEAD. Post-entry, the US signal is a miss-avoidance tool.

Cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for earnings beats vs misses on NSE at T+1, T+5, T+21, T+63 trading days

event-study

Post-Earnings Drift in India: The Strongest PEAD Signal in the World

NSE stocks drift +2.93% vs the Sensex after positive earnings surprises over 63 trading days (next-day close entry). Q5-Q1 spread: +4.28pp. In a world where US beats show no post-entry drift, India's signal is the strongest globally.