small cap
We backtested small-cap value on TSX from 2000 to 2025. 13.21% CAGR, +9.26% over the TSX Composite. But -48.13% max drawdown reveals heavy resource sector exposure. The highest-risk version of the strategy in our 14-exchange comparison.
earnings
Taiwan is the clearest exception in a global beat-and-dip study. 410 events from 2014–2025 show statistically significant mean reversion: +2.23%** at T+21 overall, and +7.35%** for the 10–20% dip category. Most other markets show flat or negative drift.
earnings
We tested 13,098 beat-and-dip events on US stocks from 2000–2025. Stocks that beat earnings but sell off 5%+ don't recover. They keep underperforming. T+63 CAR is -0.72% (t=-4.03). The sell-off is not an overreaction; it's information.
equity growth
We backtested the Compounding Equity Screen on TSX stocks from 2000 to 2025. 6.02% CAGR vs 3.95% for the TSX Composite, a +2.07% annual excess. Strong outperformance in the first decade and in recovery years (2009, 2010, 2020), with a severe 2008 drawdown of -40.6%.
etf
We backtested a portfolio of the 30 least ETF-owned quality stocks on Indian markets (BSE + NSE) over 20 years. Result: 4.47% CAGR vs 10.61% for SPY, but a 50% win rate and +35.7% excess return in 2008. India's concentrated ETF market creates real pockets of under-coverage.
etf
We backtested a portfolio of the 30 least ETF-owned quality A-shares over 20 years. Result: 8.75% CAGR vs 10.61% for SPY, the closest to matching the benchmark among strong-signal exchanges. But two Chinese bull markets (2006, 2014) account for most of the outperformance.
etf
We backtested a portfolio of the 30 least ETF-owned quality stocks on XETRA over 20 years. Result: 7.12% CAGR vs 10.61% for SPY, but the best Sharpe ratio (0.260) among all strong-signal exchanges. Germany's Mittelstand offers the most efficient anti-crowding returns.
working capital
We tested working capital efficiency as a stock selection signal across all US exchanges from 2000 to 2025. The result: 11.07% CAGR vs 7.64% for the S&P 500, with a down capture ratio of just 13%. The portfolio lost 13 cents for every dollar the market lost in downturns.
value investing
We backtested a P/B < 1.5 + ROE > 8% screen on Stockholm-listed stocks from 2000 to 2025. 13.55% CAGR, Sharpe ratio of 0.524, and a down capture of only 44.29% vs the OMX Stockholm 30. Best risk-adjusted result of 17 exchanges we tested. Returns in SEK.
global stocks
D/E reduction + ROE > 8% tested on 13 exchanges from 2000-2025. 10 of 13 beat local benchmarks: Sweden +4.41% vs OMX, UK +3.93% vs FTSE, India +3.85% vs Sensex. The US only matches SPY (-0.22%). The edge lives where information moves slowly.
equity growth
We backtested the Compounding Equity Screen on NSE stocks from 2000 to 2025. 5.15% CAGR vs 12.06% for the Sensex. The strategy underperforms the local benchmark by 6.90% annually, with 8 of 25 years in cash missing India''s strongest bull market.
backtests
We ran the same cyclical timing signal across 15 exchanges over 24 years. India: +4.55% annual excess. China: -17.97% annual excess. Germany and Sweden also positive. The same revenue growth signal produced opposite outcomes in markets with different economic structures.