value investing
We screened for stocks with high Owner Earnings yield across all US exchanges from 2000 to 2025. The strategy returned 12.25% annually vs 7.85% for the S&P 500 with a down capture ratio of 33.1%.
backtests
Germany produced the best risk-adjusted cyclical timing result among developed markets. 8.48% CAGR (-0.41% excess), Sharpe 0.411, max drawdown -35.07%. German industrials and materials provided stable expansion signals across 24 years.
quality investing
We ran the FCF Compounders screen on 18 exchanges from 2000-2025 with local benchmarks. US led at 11.39% CAGR (+3.54% vs S&P 500), zero cash. Germany +3.96% vs DAX. India trails Sensex by 6.16% annually. Only deep markets work.
quality investing
We screened XETRA for FCF compounders from 2000-2025. 9.0% CAGR vs 5.04% for the DAX with 22 invested years out of 25. Germany's industrial cash discipline beats the local benchmark by 3.96% annually.
quality investing
FCF Compounders screen on LSE from 2000-2025. 8.04% CAGR vs 1.23% for the FTSE 100. The filter was invested in only 13 of 25 years, but when it fired, it beat the benchmark by an average of 15% per year.
quality investing
We screened for companies that grew FCF in 4+ of the last 5 years with ROIC above 15% and backtested on US stocks from 2000-2025. 11.39% CAGR vs 7.85% for SPY. Zero cash periods, 64% win rate, 68.1% down capture.
backtests
India is the only dedicated market in our 15-exchange cyclical timing study with sustained outperformance. 13.44% CAGR, +4.55% excess vs S&P 500, and a -0.6% down capture that made this strategy counter-cyclical in Indian markets.
backtests
We tested a 24-year strategy that invests in US cyclical stocks only when the sector is expanding (50%+ of companies with positive revenue growth). 8.04% CAGR, 34.3% down capture, and three cash calls that avoided major drawdowns. Full methodology and SQL included.
Cash Flow
OCF momentum returned 10.2% annually on TSX stocks, 2000-2025. TSX Composite returned just 4.0%. $10K → $102K. Zero cash periods, 56% win rate, -22% max drawdown.
Cash Flow
Same signal, 9 markets, 25 years. India: +13.3% CAGR (+5.4% alpha). Thailand: +2.1% (-5.7% alpha). Cash flow quality works where accounting is weak, fails where it's strong.
Cash Flow
OCF momentum returned 6.6% annually on German stocks, underperforming SPY by 1.2% with -50% max drawdown. Export-heavy economy where cash flows are more volatile than earnings.
Cash Flow
OCF momentum returned 2.8% annually on Hong Kong stocks with negative Sharpe (-0.01). Holding company structures + China macro risk = worst risk-adjusted returns of any market tested.