revenue acceleration
Canada is the only market where revenue acceleration outperformed in our global study. The margin is thin (+0.29%), but the down capture of 44% tells the real story.
revenue acceleration
Revenue acceleration backtested in 12 markets over 25 years. Canada is the only positive result at +0.29%. Hong Kong is the worst at -12.55%. The signal fails globally but the how varies enormously by market.
revenue acceleration
Revenue acceleration underperforms in Germany by 1.3% annually. But it produced the lowest max drawdown in our 12-exchange study (-29.91%) and captured only 58.5% of market declines.
revenue acceleration
We ran the revenue acceleration strategy on all US stocks from 2000 to 2025. 3.76% CAGR vs 7.30% for the S&P 500. Down capture of 109.6%. Fully invested every year. It still failed.
momentum investing
Same strategy, 17 global exchanges, 25 years. Volume-confirmed momentum returned +7.34% excess vs OMX Stockholm 30, +6.0% vs FTSE 100, but -0.97% vs Sensex in India and -0.92% vs S&P 500 in the US. The factor works where institutional volume is informative — and fails where it's noise.
momentum investing
Volume-confirmed momentum on Indian equities from 2001 to 2025: 12.21% CAGR with 70.6% down capture. Strong absolute returns, but the Sensex returned 13.18% over the same period. The factor provides downside protection but doesn't beat the index.
momentum investing
Volume-confirmed momentum on Swedish stocks returned 11.02% annually from 2001 to 2025, +7.34% over the OMX Stockholm 30 (3.68% CAGR). Sharpe ratio of 0.487 — highest of 17 global exchanges. Down capture of 34.75% and 29% cash periods define the strategy: defensive in crises, strong when invested.
momentum investing
We added volume confirmation to 12-month momentum on US stocks: rising 3-month volume, positive earnings, positive cash flow. From 2001 to 2025, the strategy returned 7.66% annually vs 8.59% for SPY — with 148.3% down capture. Volume signals are noise in the world's most traded market.
momentum investing
Volume-confirmed momentum on Canadian equities from 2001 to 2025: 9.25% CAGR vs 4.75% for the TSX Composite, +4.49% annual excess return, Sharpe 0.428, and 32.4% down capture — the lowest of any exchange in this study. The commodity-driven TSX provides natural decorrelation.
earnings surprise
Brazil earnings beats produce +1.43% CAR at T+63 vs Bovespa. Misses produce -1.28%. Q5-Q1 spread: +3.22%. Both sides of the PEAD signal are active.
earnings surprise
Canada has a 50.5% beat rate and clean bilateral PEAD. Biggest beats produce +2.27% CAR at T+63, biggest misses -1.87%. Q5-Q1 spread: +4.14%.
earnings surprise
China's beat rate is 34.6%, the lowest of 14 exchanges tested. But when Chinese companies beat estimates, the drift is real: +2.48% CAR at T+63. Negative surprises barely drift (-0.08%).