value investing
We previously published a DCF discount backtest for Brazilian stocks reporting 18.05% CAGR. The headline was substantially inflated by broken split-adjusted prices in our upstream FMP data. We retract the original number and explain why.
value investing
We screened every US stock for discount to intrinsic value using a Gordon Growth Model and backtested from 2000 to 2025. The strategy returned 7.91% CAGR vs 7.33% for SPY, +0.58% annual excess. A thin edge with deeper drawdowns and worse risk-adjusted returns than the index.
value investing
We backtested Greenblatt's Magic Formula on NSE stocks from 2000 to 2025. The strategy returned 17.14% annually vs 11.12% for the Sensex. $10,000 became $587K. Both returns in INR, so the 6.0% excess is a clean same-currency comparison.
value investing
We backtested Greenblatt's Magic Formula on the Jakarta Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2025. With a proper IDR 5T market cap threshold (~$310M USD), the strategy returned 7.71% annually, roughly matching SPY. An earlier analysis using IDR 1B (~$65K USD) showed 19.58% CAGR, but that was micro-cap noise.
stock splits
We analyzed 1,968 forward stock splits on US exchanges from 2000 to 2025. The post-split drift has disappeared in aggregate. But the split ratio tells the real story: 2-for-1 splits still outperform (+2.6%), while 5-for-1+ splits underperform by -11.7%.
value investing
We ran the same two-factor ranking system on 20 global exchanges with local benchmarks. 13 of 20 exchanges beat their local index. India led at +13.12% vs Sensex, Brazil at +10.72% vs Bovespa, UK at +8.02% vs FTSE 100. Sweden (+4.96% vs OMX), Germany, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Korea all show...
value investing
We backtested Greenblatt's Magic Formula on all US exchanges from 2000 to 2025 with next-day execution. The strategy returned 9.26% annually vs 8.02% for the S&P 500. Most of the alpha came from 2000-2013.
value investing
The Magic Formula returned 19.67% annually on B3-listed Brazilian stocks from 2000 to 2025. That's 10.72% annual excess return over the Bovespa. Only 1 cash period out of 103.
dividend investing
The Dogs of the Dow adapted for Sweden. Take the 30 largest STO stocks, buy the 10 highest-yielding. 9.7% CAGR over 25 years, +6.8% excess over the OMX Stockholm 30, 68% win rate against the local benchmark.
dividend investing
Buy the 10 highest-yielding Dow stocks every January. Hold for a year. Repeat. We tested 25 years of data. Dogs returned 10.2% vs 7.6% for the S&P 500. The real story is risk: Sharpe of 0.693 vs 0.322, max drawdown of -19.7% vs -34.9%.
dividend investing
We tested the Dogs of the Dow strategy on 13 global exchanges from 2000 to 2025. The strategy beat the S&P 500 in 6 of 13 markets. India and Sweden stood out. Japan beat the Nikkei but trailed SPY.
dividend investing
The Dogs of the Dow adapted for India. Take the 30 largest BSE stocks by market cap, buy the 10 highest-yielding. Over 25 years, this returned 14.6% annually, beating the Sensex by 3.2% with a 60% win rate.