earnings surprise
We tested Post-Earnings Announcement Drift on 14 global exchanges using 300,000+ earnings events from 2000 to 2025. The main finding is simple: PEAD is universal. Every exchange in our study shows a positive Q5-Q1 quintile spread at T+63. India leads at +7.59%. Sweden trails at +0.91%
earnings surprise
Earnings misses cause 8x more drift than beats on US stocks. We tested 170,115 earnings announcements from 2000 to 2025. Negative surprises produce -2.00% cumulative abnormal return at T+63. Positive surprises produce just +0.24%. The Post-Earnings Announcement Drift anomaly is real, but the edge is concentrated
earnings surprise
UK earnings beats produce just +0.22% cumulative abnormal return at T+63. Misses produce -2.14%. The Q5-Q1 spread of +3.99% exists, but it's almost entirely driven by what happens to companies that miss estimates. The UK PEAD signal is structurally a miss-avoidance signal. If you&
earnings surprise
Don't buy the beat in Thailand. The earnings surprise signal here works in only one direction: misses produce strongly negative drift, and beats produce essentially nothing. The Q5-Q1 spread of +5.43% is the third-largest globally, but it's entirely driven by the collapse in Q1 (worst
earnings surprise
Taiwan's Q5-Q1 earnings drift spread of +5.47% at T+63 is the second-largest globally in our study. But the story here is driven by the miss side. Biggest misses produce -3.71% CAR at T+63 (t=-11.4). Biggest beats produce a more modest +1.76%
earnings surprise
Japan has the second-highest beat rate of any exchange we tested: 57.3% of earnings announcements come in above estimates. The drift is real in both directions. Biggest beats produce +3.02% cumulative abnormal return at T+63. Biggest misses fall -2.00%. The Q5-Q1 spread of +5.01% puts
earnings surprise
India has the largest earnings surprise drift of any exchange we tested. Beat the estimate on BSE or NSE and your stock produces +4.84% cumulative abnormal return over the following 63 trading days. That's 20x the equivalent figure for US stocks (+0.24%). The Q5-Q1 quintile spread
earnings surprise
China has the lowest beat rate of any exchange in our global study: just 34.6% of earnings announcements come in above analyst estimates. Two-thirds of Chinese companies miss. Despite this, when they do beat, the drift is real and sustained. Positive surprises produce +2.48% CAR at T+63.
earnings surprise
Canada's earnings surprise drift is clean, bilateral, and well-behaved. With a 50.5% beat rate, TSX earnings announcements split nearly evenly between beats and misses. Both sides drift in the expected direction. Biggest beats produce +2.27% cumulative abnormal return at T+63, biggest misses produce -1.87%
earnings surprise
Brazil is a positive-side PEAD market. Earnings beats produce +2.59% cumulative abnormal return at T+63. Misses produce just -0.24%, which isn't statistically significant. The Q5-Q1 spread of +3.38% is driven almost entirely by the positive tail. If you want to implement PEAD in Brazil,