analyst ratings
We measured 12,835 analyst upgrades on XETRA-listed German stocks from 2012 to 2025. Unlike the US where drift disappears by next-day entry, German upgrades keep running, reaching +0.78% vs DAX at one month and +1.63% at three months. Clustered upgrades reach +2.17% at T+63. Downgrades fully...
analyst ratings
We measured 136,479 analyst rating revision events across US, Germany, UK, Switzerland, and Canada from 2012 to 2025 using next-day-close entry. The US is the only market where upgrades underperform after the announcement day (-0.18% at T+21). Germany, UK, and Switzerland show sustained drift....
earnings surprise
We tested 161,243 US earnings announcements from 2000 to 2025 and entered at the next day's close. The beat-side drift vanishes, and only the miss side survives (Q1 -1.46%). Q5-Q1 spread: +1.42%.
earnings surprise
India has the strongest beat-side earnings drift we found. Positive surprises produce +2.78% CAR at T+63 vs Sensex, and it survives a next-day entry. Q5 biggest beats reach +3.83%. Q5-Q1 spread: +4.08%.
earnings surprise
Canada looks like a beat market until you strip the baseline. Near-consensus TSX stocks drift +1.51% vs the index, so beats add almost nothing and the real signal is the miss side (Q1 -1.79% net). Q5-Q1 spread: +1.89%.
earnings surprise
Japan PEAD looks strong until you enter a day late. The Q5-Q1 spread drops to +0.82%, the weakest major market. Biggest beats show no significant drift, and misses hold up vs near-consensus. It was mostly the announcement day.
earnings surprise
China has the lowest beat rate of any exchange we tested: 34.8%. But when Chinese companies beat, the drift survives a next-day entry: Q5 +2.58% at T+63, or +1.46% net of baseline. Q5-Q1 spread: +2.33%.
earnings surprise
Taiwan has the widest earnings-surprise spread in our study: +4.52% at T+63 vs the TAIEX, now the largest after the correction. Both sides survive. Worst misses -3.08% (-2.69% net), biggest beats +1.45%.
earnings surprise
Thailand's earnings drift is a beat-side signal vs the local SET Index. Biggest beats +1.34% at T+63, or +1.50% net of baseline, and the miss side is weaker and not significant. Q5-Q1 spread: +2.22%.
earnings surprise
We tested Post-Earnings Announcement Drift on 13 global exchanges with 280,000+ events, 2000-2025, entering at the next day's close. The tradeable drift is far smaller than same-day studies show. Taiwan leads (+4.52% spread), India leads the beat side.
earnings surprise
UK earnings drift is a beat-side signal vs the FTSE 100. Biggest beats produce +1.18% CAR at T+63, or +1.38% net of baseline. The miss side does almost nothing. Q5-Q1 spread: +1.59%.