momentum investing
Volume-confirmed momentum on Indian equities from 2001 to 2025: 12.21% CAGR with 70.6% down capture. Strong absolute returns, but the Sensex returned 13.18% over the same period. The factor provides downside protection but doesn't beat the index.
momentum investing
Same strategy, 17 global exchanges, 25 years. Volume-confirmed momentum returned +7.34% excess vs OMX Stockholm 30, +6.0% vs FTSE 100, but -0.97% vs Sensex in India and -0.92% vs S&P 500 in the US. The factor works where institutional volume is informative — and fails where it's noise.
earnings surprise
We tested 161,243 US earnings announcements from 2000 to 2025 and entered at the next day's close. The beat-side drift vanishes, and only the miss side survives (Q1 -1.46%). Q5-Q1 spread: +1.42%.
earnings surprise
India has the strongest beat-side earnings drift we found. Positive surprises produce +2.78% CAR at T+63 vs Sensex, and it survives a next-day entry. Q5 biggest beats reach +3.83%. Q5-Q1 spread: +4.08%.
earnings surprise
Canada looks like a beat market until you strip the baseline. Near-consensus TSX stocks drift +1.51% vs the index, so beats add almost nothing and the real signal is the miss side (Q1 -1.79% net). Q5-Q1 spread: +1.89%.
earnings surprise
Japan PEAD looks strong until you enter a day late. The Q5-Q1 spread drops to +0.82%, the weakest major market. Biggest beats show no significant drift, and misses hold up vs near-consensus. It was mostly the announcement day.
earnings surprise
China has the lowest beat rate of any exchange we tested: 34.8%. But when Chinese companies beat, the drift survives a next-day entry: Q5 +2.58% at T+63, or +1.46% net of baseline. Q5-Q1 spread: +2.33%.
earnings surprise
Taiwan has the widest earnings-surprise spread in our study: +4.52% at T+63 vs the TAIEX, now the largest after the correction. Both sides survive. Worst misses -3.08% (-2.69% net), biggest beats +1.45%.
earnings surprise
Thailand's earnings drift is a beat-side signal vs the local SET Index. Biggest beats +1.34% at T+63, or +1.50% net of baseline, and the miss side is weaker and not significant. Q5-Q1 spread: +2.22%.
earnings surprise
We tested Post-Earnings Announcement Drift on 13 global exchanges with 280,000+ events, 2000-2025, entering at the next day's close. The tradeable drift is far smaller than same-day studies show. Taiwan leads (+4.52% spread), India leads the beat side.
earnings surprise
UK earnings drift is a beat-side signal vs the FTSE 100. Biggest beats produce +1.18% CAR at T+63, or +1.38% net of baseline. The miss side does almost nothing. Q5-Q1 spread: +1.59%.
pairs trading
A full 20-year backtest of correlation-based pairs trading on US stocks. -0.50% CAGR, six cash years, beta of 0.067. The 2008 defense was real. The long-run cost was too.