event study
15,167 JPX earnings events from 2017-2025. When benchmarked against the Nikkei 225 instead of EWJ, the pre-earnings drift drops to -0.007% (t=-0.19). Not significant. The original +0.114% result was a benchmark artifact.
event study
Pre-earnings drift across 13 markets with local currency benchmarks. Korea leads at +0.745% vs KOSPI. Japan's effect disappeared vs Nikkei. Taiwan flipped from negative to positive. Corrected August 2026: UK and Germany rows retracted, India withdrawn as untested.
analyst ratings
We reported +1.09% upgrade drift against the FTSE 100 on LSE stocks. Then we checked the universe: 85.7% of the events are US-domiciled companies and only 6.2% are British. For UK companies the one-month drift is 0.008%, which is zero. This is the correction.
analyst ratings
We measured 180,658 analyst revisions across five markets and found European upgrade drift that looked strong. It was foreign secondary listings scored against a local index: XETRA is 88% US-domiciled, the LSE 86%. The tell was that downgraded stocks also beat the index.
analyst ratings
We ran an event study on 61,410 analyst upgrades on US stocks, 2012 to 2025. The move happens on announcement day. What survives needs no benchmark: one month on, stocks upgraded by two or more firms are up 1.82% against 1.05% for single-analyst upgrades. A 0.77 point gap.
analyst ratings
We reported that German stocks drift +1.63% above the DAX after analyst upgrades. Then we checked the universe: only 1.5% of the events were German companies. 88% were US mega-caps' Frankfurt listings scored against a German index, and they drifted up after downgrades too. This is the correction.
earnings surprise
We tested Post-Earnings Announcement Drift on 13 global exchanges with 280,000+ events, 2000-2025, entering at the next day's close. The tradeable drift is far smaller than same-day studies show. Taiwan leads (+4.52% spread), India leads the beat side.
earnings surprise
UK earnings drift is a beat-side signal vs the FTSE 100. Biggest beats produce +1.18% CAR at T+63, or +1.38% net of baseline. The miss side does almost nothing. Q5-Q1 spread: +1.59%.
earnings surprise
Thailand's earnings drift is a beat-side signal vs the local SET Index. Biggest beats +1.34% at T+63, or +1.50% net of baseline, and the miss side is weaker and not significant. Q5-Q1 spread: +2.22%.
earnings surprise
China has the lowest beat rate of any exchange we tested: 34.8%. But when Chinese companies beat, the drift survives a next-day entry: Q5 +2.58% at T+63, or +1.46% net of baseline. Q5-Q1 spread: +2.33%.
earnings surprise
Taiwan has the widest earnings-surprise spread in our study: +4.52% at T+63 vs the TAIEX, now the largest after the correction. Both sides survive. Worst misses -3.08% (-2.69% net), biggest beats +1.45%.
earnings surprise
Canada looks like a beat market until you strip the baseline. Near-consensus TSX stocks drift +1.51% vs the index, so beats add almost nothing and the real signal is the miss side (Q1 -1.79% net). Q5-Q1 spread: +1.89%.