analyst ratings
We measured 136,479 analyst rating revision events across US, Germany, UK, Switzerland, and Canada from 2012 to 2025 using next-day-close entry. The US is the only market where upgrades underperform after the announcement day (-0.18% at T+21). Germany, UK, and Switzerland show sustained drift....
analyst ratings
We measured 12,835 analyst upgrades on XETRA-listed German stocks from 2012 to 2025. Unlike the US where drift disappears by next-day entry, German upgrades keep running, reaching +0.78% vs DAX at one month and +1.63% at three months. Clustered upgrades reach +2.17% at T+63. Downgrades fully...
analyst ratings
We measured 9,116 analyst upgrades on LSE-listed UK stocks from 2012 to 2025. Upgrades produce sustained drift through three months: +0.48% at one month and +1.09% vs FTSE 100 at three months. Clustered upgrades reach +1.74% at T+63. UK downgrades recover rather than persist, opposite to the US...
analyst ratings
We ran an event study on 66,741 analyst upgrades on US stocks from 2012 to 2025. The upgrade move happens on announcement day. You can't capture it. By the next close, average upgrades produce -0.18% at one month. Clustered upgrades (2+ firms in 30 days) still drift +0.27% at T+21. Single...
earnings surprise
Brazil earnings beats produce +1.43% CAR at T+63 vs Bovespa. Misses produce -1.28%. Q5-Q1 spread: +3.22%. Both sides of the PEAD signal are active.
earnings surprise
Canada has a 50.5% beat rate and clean bilateral PEAD. Biggest beats produce +2.27% CAR at T+63, biggest misses -1.87%. Q5-Q1 spread: +4.14%.
earnings surprise
China's beat rate is 34.6%, the lowest of 14 exchanges tested. But when Chinese companies beat estimates, the drift is real: +2.48% CAR at T+63. Negative surprises barely drift (-0.08%).
earnings surprise
We tested Post-Earnings Announcement Drift on 14 global exchanges with 300,000+ events from 2000-2025. PEAD is universal. India leads (+6.89% Q5-Q1 spread vs Sensex), Sweden trails (+1.12%). Every exchange shows positive drift.
earnings surprise
India's PEAD is the strongest in our global study. Positive earnings surprises produce +3.77% CAR at T+63 vs Sensex. Q5 biggest beats reach +5.39%. The Q5-Q1 spread of +6.89% is the largest of any exchange we tested.
earnings surprise
Japan PEAD is miss-heavy vs Nikkei 225. Biggest misses produce -2.84% CAR at T+63 (t=-11.3). Biggest beats produce +2.09% (t=8.3). Q5-Q1 spread: +4.93%.
earnings surprise
Taiwan's Q5-Q1 earnings drift spread is +5.47% at T+63, second globally. The story is driven by the miss side: worst misses produce -3.71% CAR at T+63.
earnings surprise
Thailand PEAD works on both sides vs the local SET Index. Q5 beats: +2.49% CAR at T+63 (t=+5.1). Q1 misses: -1.78% (t=-3.8). Q5-Q1 spread: +4.28%. Thailand ranks 6th globally.