sector rotation
We tested buying the bottom 2 sectors by 12-month return on US large caps, quarterly, from 2000 to 2025. The result: 10.63% CAGR vs 8.02% for the S&P 500, a 1282% total return, and a 55.8% quarterly win rate over 104 periods.
backtests
The Oversold Quality strategy on Chinese A-shares (SHZ+SHH) delivered 6.73% CAGR vs 4.19% for the SSE Composite over 25 years. One of only two exchanges in our global series where the strategy beats the local benchmark outright.
backtests
We tested the Oversold Quality strategy (Piotroski >= 7 + RSI < 30) on 16 stock exchanges. China beats SSE Composite by +2.54%, Germany beats DAX by +0.33%. The other 14 underperform their local benchmarks. Cash rates and market volatility explain the variation.
backtests
Oversold Quality on German XETRA stocks: 5.45% CAGR, +0.33% above the DAX, Sharpe 0.18, and only 44.7% down-capture. The only exchange in our 16-exchange series where the strategy beats the local benchmark outright.
backtests
We combined Piotroski quality scores with RSI oversold signals and tested it on 25 years of US market data. The strategy underperforms SPY overall but shows clear defensive characteristics in bear markets.
earnings
18,925 beat-and-dip events across 12 exchanges with local benchmarks. Taiwan: +2.20%** at T+21. UK: +1.33%** (new). China: +2.35%** at T+63 (new). US: -0.85%** (continues falling). India lost its signal when measured vs Sensex instead of a USD ETF.
earnings
We tested 13,954 beat-and-dip events on US stocks from 2000–2025. Stocks that beat earnings but sell off 5%+ don't recover. They keep underperforming. T+63 CAR is -0.85% (t=-4.56). The sell-off is not an overreaction; it's information.
backtests
The TSX isn't the S&P 500. Energy companies, banks, and miners dominate Canada's index. They trade cyclically. When commodity prices fall, quality resource stocks hit 52-week lows. When the cycle turns, they recover. This backtest ran from 2002 to 2025 to see whether a
backtests
China's equity markets are retail-dominated, sentiment-driven, and structurally disconnected from the fundamentals of individual companies. That makes them a strange testing ground for a quality-filtered 52-week low screen. The result is better than you'd expect. Contents 1. Method 2. What We Found 3. Year-by-Year 4. China&
backtests
The strategy is straightforward: buy financially healthy stocks that are near their annual lows, wait for them to recover, rotate quarterly. Simple premise. The question is whether the premise holds globally or just in certain market structures. Contents 1. Method 2. What We Found 3. Why Japan and Germany Work
backtests
A $10,000 investment in 2002 following this strategy on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was worth $5,472 by end of 2025. That's a 45% nominal loss over 24 years, not accounting for inflation. Contents 1. Method 2. What We Found 3. Year-by-Year 4. Why Hong Kong
backtests
India's result is worse than it looks: 3.62% CAGR over 24 years on NSE. Compare that to the Sensex, which returned 14.48% annually over the same period. The strategy trailed the local benchmark by -10.86% per year. The Sharpe ratio is -0.114. The strategy