backtests
We tested Graham Number timing on Indian stocks (BSE+NSE). 13.44% CAGR vs 8.01% SPY, +5.43% excess (best globally). 57.1% down-capture with 122.5% up-capture. Value investing asymmetry in emerging markets.
backtests
We tested Graham Number timing on Swedish stocks. 12.98% CAGR vs 8.01% SPY, +4.97% excess. 0.544 Sharpe ratio (best globally), 72% down-capture. The Goldilocks result: high alpha with controlled risk.
backtests
We tested buying stocks trading below Benjamin Graham's intrinsic value formula. 12.40% CAGR vs 8.01% SPY over 25 years, with 122% up-capture and 0% cash periods. The 75-year-old formula still works without modification.
Hong Kong stocks
We backtested sector-relative EV/EBITDA on 21 years of Hong Kong stocks (HKSE). 0.87% CAGR vs 0.49% Hang Seng, +0.38% excess. Looks positive — but negative Sharpe ratio (-0.097) and -57.59% max drawdown tell the real story. Risk-adjusted returns are negative despite marginally beating the index.
Canada stocks
We backtested sector-relative EV/EBITDA on 23 years of Canadian stocks (TSX). 7.16% CAGR vs 4.44% TSX Composite (+2.72% excess), but max drawdown -44.68% and Sharpe 0.233. The signal works when sector discounts have a catalyst. In Canada's resource-heavy TSX, they often don't.
China stocks
We backtested sector-relative EV/EBITDA on 25 years of China A-share data (SHZ+SHH). 4.14% CAGR vs 3.54% SSE Composite, +0.60% excess. But Sharpe 0.038 and -64.15% max drawdown tell the real story. The signal barely beats a market that itself barely returns anything. Discounts in China follow...
global stocks
We ran sector-relative EV/EBITDA on 14 global exchanges (2000-2025), using each market's own local benchmark. 11 of 14 markets show positive excess return. The "West works, East doesn't" framing disappears with local benchmarks. India and Thailand are the main underperformers. US leads at...
Germany stocks
We backtested sector-relative EV/EBITDA on 25 years of German stocks (XETRA). 8.97% CAGR vs 4.45% DAX (total return), +4.53% excess. Zero cash periods. Win rate 48% but big alpha years (2000: +48% excess vs DAX) drive the long-run case. DAX is a total-return index — this is a clean comparison.
India stocks
We backtested a sector-relative EV/EBITDA screen on NSE stocks (2006-2025). 10.75% CAGR and beats SPY by a wide margin, but the Sensex returned 11.4%. Against the local benchmark, the strategy trails by 0.66% per year. Full data, SQL screen, and honest assessment.
Japan stocks
We backtested sector-relative EV/EBITDA on 19 years of Japanese stocks (JPX, 2006-2025). 3.38% CAGR vs 2.95% Nikkei 225, +0.43% excess. Japan is a deep value market, but the excess is thin and risk-adjusted returns are poor (Sharpe 0.177, MaxDD -49.76%). Discounts close on government policy, not...
Switzerland stocks
We backtested sector-relative EV/EBITDA on 23 years of Swiss data (SIX). 8.83% CAGR vs 1.90% SMI (price return), 18.21% down capture, MaxDD -29.3%, Sharpe 0.421. Note: SMI excludes dividends — true excess vs total-return SMI is ~+3-4% annually. Still strong downside protection with a 15-stock...
UK stocks
We backtested a sector-relative EV/EBITDA screen on 25 years of UK stock data (LSE). 9.77% CAGR vs 0.86% for the FTSE 100 (price return), zero cash periods, and a max drawdown of -31.12%. Note: FTSE 100 is price-only — true excess vs total-return FTSE is closer to +5-6% annually.